***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 27.6 28.6 28.3 4.4 98.6 96.5 23.3 24.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 27.4 29.4 28.8 4.8 98.5 96.4 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 27.4 28.6 28.5 4.5 97.4 96.0 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 18.5 20.1 23.5 2.8 89.5 88.2 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 27.0 29.5 25.7 3.6 95.0 93.3 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 24.7 25.0 21.6 2.1 83.6 81.1 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 26.9 28.1 28.5 4.5 96.4 95.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 14.5 15.1 22.6 3.0 87.9 86.6 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 26.5 29.0 26.9 4.0 96.0 94.9 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 26.0 27.9 24.4 3.5 91.3 90.1 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 26.4 28.3 25.7 3.5 92.8 91.1 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 25.0 26.7 23.7 3.0 90.0 88.1 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 26.2 28.0 24.5 2.9 89.9 88.1 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 26.6 29.2 27.0 4.4 96.7 95.1 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 26.3 28.0 26.1 2.7 92.6 89.4 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 26.9 28.7 24.6 3.0 90.1 88.8 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 27.0 28.7 28.9 5.1 98.9 96.8 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 26.1 27.2 23.5 3.5 91.6 89.5 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 26.8 29.2 29.0 5.0 99.2 97.4 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 20.9 21.4 20.6 2.9 85.6 84.8 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 27.0 28.9 27.9 4.1 96.2 95.1 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 27.5 29.3 29.0 5.4 99.4 97.6 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 27.1 30.0 29.4 5.6 99.5 98.8 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 26.4 28.3 26.7 4.2 96.0 93.7 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 27.0 28.6 26.6 3.9 97.4 94.8 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 25.9 27.7 22.8 3.0 91.1 88.5 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 26.8 28.5 27.4 4.1 97.3 95.1 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 26.5 27.3 24.4 2.5 89.0 86.9 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 21.1 22.1 22.6 3.4 90.4 88.5 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 27.0 29.3 28.7 4.6 97.7 96.0 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------