***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 14.9 15.5 17.0 1.1 66.8 66.5 14.3 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.4 15.3 17.0 1.1 68.3 66.4 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 16.4 17.0 17.2 1.2 69.5 67.7 15.2 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.9 14.3 0.9 67.6 63.7 10.1 10.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.9 14.4 0.9 70.0 65.3 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.6 13.0 12.2 0.9 71.8 66.0 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.6 17.0 1.1 69.6 66.3 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 6.9 7.3 11.7 0.6 62.8 60.7 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 14.8 15.1 14.6 0.9 69.4 65.8 13.6 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 12.8 0.7 65.0 62.5 13.1 14.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.5 13.6 0.8 69.2 64.0 13.2 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.5 12.5 0.7 65.1 61.9 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.8 12.3 0.7 65.5 62.4 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 14.7 15.3 14.6 0.9 67.3 65.2 13.6 14.6 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.8 15.5 1.0 70.3 65.3 14.5 14.8 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.2 13.1 0.8 68.5 63.6 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.9 16.8 1.1 68.9 66.2 13.5 14.5 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.0 11.9 0.7 63.2 61.9 11.9 12.4 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 14.4 15.3 17.0 1.2 69.8 67.7 13.6 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.5 9.6 0.5 59.3 58.7 7.9 8.4 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 14.2 15.0 16.1 1.0 68.8 66.0 13.4 14.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.1 16.7 1.2 69.9 67.3 13.2 13.5 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 14.4 15.1 16.9 1.3 74.4 69.9 13.1 13.5 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.7 14.3 0.9 68.6 65.5 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.7 15.4 1.0 67.3 64.4 13.3 13.9 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.9 13.8 12.1 0.9 68.8 65.4 11.7 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.6 16.2 1.1 67.5 65.5 13.2 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.1 14.5 0.9 68.8 63.8 12.3 12.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.9 11.6 11.2 0.6 62.1 60.8 9.5 10.5 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 14.8 15.8 17.1 1.1 68.7 66.6 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------