***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 13.9 15.6 17.3 3.4 99.4 97.8 11.5 12.8 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 14.2 16.3 17.3 3.5 98.9 97.1 11.9 12.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 15.8 17.7 17.3 3.3 98.4 96.8 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 10.9 11.9 13.7 2.2 92.2 89.9 8.3 8.9 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 12.1 13.6 14.6 2.6 96.0 93.6 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 10.5 10.7 10.6 1.3 78.6 77.4 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 14.0 15.8 17.2 3.4 99.1 96.5 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 5.8 6.8 11.4 2.3 90.8 89.8 3.9 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 13.1 14.3 14.9 2.7 97.0 94.5 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 12.9 13.8 12.8 2.5 92.8 91.8 11.5 11.9 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 12.4 13.7 13.7 2.2 91.4 89.9 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 11.1 11.8 12.4 2.2 91.6 90.1 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.6 11.6 1.2 79.3 76.0 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 13.8 15.3 14.8 2.9 96.6 94.3 12.1 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 14.1 14.6 14.7 1.7 84.6 83.5 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 12.8 13.2 12.7 1.7 84.0 82.6 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.2 17.2 3.5 99.1 96.9 12.1 12.9 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 11.3 13.1 12.1 2.4 93.8 91.6 10.0 10.7 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 14.0 16.1 17.5 3.7 99.3 98.1 12.1 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 7.6 8.4 10.0 2.2 91.4 89.6 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 13.0 14.7 16.0 2.7 97.0 94.2 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 13.7 15.4 17.6 3.9 99.9 98.6 11.5 12.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 13.6 15.9 17.7 4.1 99.8 99.3 11.3 12.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 13.4 14.8 14.7 2.8 96.7 94.6 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 13.5 15.2 16.0 3.0 98.5 95.7 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.4 10.7 1.2 77.2 74.7 10.3 10.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 13.8 16.8 16.6 3.1 98.8 96.2 11.4 12.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 11.9 12.0 13.7 1.7 83.8 82.6 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 10.5 11.5 11.4 2.5 94.6 92.5 8.0 9.0 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 14.0 16.3 17.5 3.5 99.1 97.4 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------