***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 70.7 120.9 65.9 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 81.4 95.8 66.5 115.0 64.7 56.9 59.2 71.7 99.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 100.4 113.6 69.5 120.6 69.2 59.5 80.0 93.3 108.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 115.7 119.3 83.6 128.1 76.1 64.3 70.7 82.3 88.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 89.0 101.3 81.0 126.6 77.4 63.4 56.1 65.6 75.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 81.4 87.3 110.9 128.0 75.7 65.7 59.8 67.2 83.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 76.5 74.4 66.0 112.8 63.3 55.3 56.6 69.8 75.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 123.8 133.2 82.4 125.6 76.3 66.1 80.6 103.0 115.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 76.7 102.6 79.3 125.4 72.5 63.0 50.5 69.6 86.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 111.8 98.3 84.9 120.8 71.7 62.5 64.7 86.1 94.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 91.9 98.8 72.6 123.5 76.4 63.6 51.7 70.8 80.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 77.1 85.0 69.3 132.1 78.6 68.5 45.9 58.2 73.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 88.6 98.0 90.8 134.6 76.7 69.5 47.5 61.6 81.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 110.4 108.9 76.2 110.1 62.9 56.0 84.5 99.6 127.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 75.9 85.9 77.2 134.1 77.7 65.5 39.0 52.6 73.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 78.8 88.6 85.9 134.7 78.0 68.6 37.1 55.0 80.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 76.1 87.2 59.9 109.9 64.5 55.1 60.7 69.3 90.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 88.0 91.9 90.7 116.6 65.7 60.5 69.1 82.2 92.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 80.3 96.5 67.5 116.9 66.8 58.1 63.6 71.1 96.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 85.7 92.8 102.4 123.6 71.5 66.1 59.8 66.9 87.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 78.8 90.2 71.1 122.9 71.3 61.3 52.6 74.3 86.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 80.3 86.4 61.1 112.5 67.1 56.8 63.3 76.1 86.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 80.6 85.7 69.4 117.1 67.7 58.5 61.4 74.4 83.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 99.8 111.5 79.1 115.4 63.4 58.8 72.6 89.4 112.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 92.0 102.2 89.9 128.3 75.2 63.3 53.4 71.1 89.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 78.5 83.0 80.7 136.6 76.3 69.9 42.9 62.8 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 56.6 106.7 82.7 122.6 70.1 60.1 59.3 77.8 100.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 75.6 81.5 81.4 132.8 77.4 65.8 41.2 60.5 71.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 122.9 120.6 93.5 119.0 68.4 62.2 85.0 101.4 119.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 81.6 90.4 69.0 117.9 67.0 57.5 64.3 74.0 90.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------