***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 13.1 112.1 63.0 53.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.8 13.9 114.8 65.7 53.0 2.9 17.3 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.5 23.7 13.3 115.7 63.9 53.5 7.7 13.2 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.3 24.2 15.3 119.3 69.1 58.3 2.7 6.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.3 14.6 118.6 66.7 57.9 1.5 9.4 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.8 18.1 101.1 61.2 56.2 3.4 9.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.1 20.9 13.7 108.7 64.3 52.1 1.7 12.3 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 14.4 23.7 13.6 105.3 60.9 57.7 2.9 7.6 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.7 14.1 116.4 63.7 56.2 5.0 10.6 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.8 15.1 108.1 60.6 56.0 4.4 9.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 17.0 12.4 112.8 67.5 58.3 2.1 9.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.0 15.8 10.5 105.7 65.9 59.2 1.1 7.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.9 18.0 13.4 102.4 66.6 58.2 1.7 7.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.4 21.7 16.5 111.3 61.3 54.5 7.3 18.3 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.5 10.2 13.1 121.2 70.5 59.4 1.0 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.3 13.2 12.9 106.4 66.8 58.0 2.0 7.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.5 23.2 13.3 117.2 67.3 53.4 4.9 14.8 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.2 16.9 103.0 59.5 54.8 1.6 10.6 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.9 20.2 13.9 118.3 66.2 53.9 3.8 11.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.6 15.2 18.1 105.7 60.4 56.9 5.2 12.1 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.2 21.8 12.8 117.0 65.2 56.0 7.4 12.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.9 13.4 121.6 68.3 54.7 6.3 11.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.9 14.2 117.9 65.2 54.5 8.1 13.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.8 21.7 15.5 108.0 59.6 54.2 5.4 19.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.7 17.2 16.7 113.0 61.6 56.3 6.6 10.8 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.0 20.1 10.5 98.5 64.6 58.0 2.9 10.1 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.7 19.9 15.8 111.5 61.1 54.9 6.1 13.5 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.6 14.1 13.8 117.2 69.6 58.6 1.9 5.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.2 19.9 17.3 104.2 62.2 56.0 7.1 14.1 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.6 16.1 13.8 113.4 65.2 52.8 4.6 9.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------