***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 22.6 147.0 73.4 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.3 30.3 20.5 124.9 69.2 52.5 6.8 16.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.6 38.4 20.9 132.7 72.7 54.6 7.6 20.5 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 10.9 39.2 23.4 141.5 76.1 55.5 9.8 23.4 32.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.9 27.2 20.9 125.1 69.4 54.0 6.2 16.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.0 16.7 27.6 121.6 63.6 56.0 6.3 11.1 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 22.8 20.8 126.2 68.7 53.3 6.5 11.7 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.7 21.0 18.1 105.0 61.1 52.0 10.9 17.0 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.7 24.9 20.1 117.9 64.2 53.5 10.5 15.3 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 28.3 31.6 20.2 106.4 61.4 51.4 10.0 23.0 33.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.0 20.3 17.2 111.8 67.7 53.5 9.0 13.0 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.8 14.7 110.1 65.8 53.6 4.7 8.8 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.8 15.7 20.6 119.4 64.4 55.6 7.9 11.4 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 13.3 30.5 21.6 114.7 66.9 52.0 12.0 22.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 24.3 22.1 150.6 75.1 57.9 2.7 8.3 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.9 16.0 19.5 122.4 70.5 56.1 3.4 9.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.3 22.6 18.1 119.0 68.2 52.5 4.8 9.0 22.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 28.6 22.0 103.1 63.5 50.1 6.3 15.3 31.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.4 29.5 20.3 124.3 69.1 52.5 12.6 20.7 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.8 27.3 24.0 105.0 60.7 51.8 5.9 17.9 35.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.4 21.4 19.7 129.2 67.1 54.7 8.2 12.4 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 9.7 24.2 18.4 122.1 68.7 52.8 4.6 17.0 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.4 29.1 20.1 121.3 68.9 52.1 4.6 16.5 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.7 36.2 21.0 113.0 68.8 51.5 11.5 25.3 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.0 36.6 27.1 145.0 74.6 56.8 6.8 12.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.2 11.2 18.1 124.2 65.8 56.3 5.1 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 20.5 29.6 26.3 145.0 74.0 57.0 8.0 16.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.3 28.5 21.6 140.9 74.6 56.6 6.6 14.9 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 14.6 34.8 22.2 103.0 61.9 50.2 12.5 26.7 36.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.9 31.7 21.6 131.8 71.0 53.8 6.2 18.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------