***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.4 110.7 66.9 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.0 25.3 13.2 99.0 59.6 49.3 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 8.8 30.9 12.7 102.3 67.3 52.5 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.7 35.2 17.0 106.6 69.8 54.1 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.9 23.2 16.4 106.8 68.4 54.3 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.4 26.4 111.1 62.8 54.6 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 6.9 20.6 13.2 101.1 60.5 49.6 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 28.9 31.2 18.5 119.9 68.3 55.3 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.0 23.8 15.9 105.9 65.8 53.8 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.3 22.7 17.9 104.9 64.3 52.1 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.0 26.3 15.5 106.5 70.0 53.5 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.4 15.0 124.7 71.0 55.0 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 19.2 20.5 115.3 67.8 55.8 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.0 15.2 89.7 58.1 48.4 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.3 19.2 16.4 112.5 71.9 56.8 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.0 23.6 18.7 112.5 69.7 55.5 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.5 20.8 12.5 94.9 57.2 46.9 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.5 19.5 102.3 61.4 50.9 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 11.0 23.4 13.3 99.7 61.7 50.3 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 20.1 25.7 120.8 65.0 57.3 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 19.8 28.5 13.9 107.8 68.4 55.1 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.6 21.3 13.2 97.7 59.3 48.2 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.8 21.1 13.4 96.9 62.9 51.1 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.8 23.8 15.8 97.5 61.2 50.7 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 20.3 28.7 17.9 112.7 67.7 56.7 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 19.1 22.5 20.1 134.6 73.6 61.0 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.9 30.1 16.2 112.1 66.5 54.6 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.7 17.0 16.4 105.7 69.6 53.7 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.3 25.0 21.2 107.2 62.1 52.3 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.4 24.5 13.4 104.4 63.6 51.6 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------