***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 21.5 111.9 67.5 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.1 33.2 18.9 118.3 70.2 61.1 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 26.6 30.3 22.5 125.7 72.7 64.6 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 28.3 36.4 27.9 139.9 79.0 70.0 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 23.4 28.3 29.0 148.7 79.6 71.1 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 24.7 31.9 38.8 174.1 80.6 75.8 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.7 18.3 111.8 68.8 58.4 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 36.9 43.0 32.2 160.7 79.5 72.8 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 22.4 25.9 29.1 153.6 80.8 72.5 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 26.8 31.1 31.7 156.2 79.1 71.8 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 21.1 24.4 27.5 154.0 80.4 71.1 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 23.2 29.2 29.2 169.2 81.4 74.3 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 25.0 28.2 36.2 187.7 80.4 79.0 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 42.3 45.7 22.9 122.9 69.2 62.1 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 17.9 22.4 25.7 146.0 78.7 71.4 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 24.0 30.5 34.7 183.1 84.7 78.5 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.9 18.2 16.0 108.4 67.9 57.6 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 29.6 33.3 32.3 154.2 78.6 71.0 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 21.7 26.4 19.8 122.8 70.9 62.9 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 23.5 30.6 34.5 160.5 80.3 72.9 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 23.7 28.3 24.7 132.4 76.4 67.6 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.4 16.0 109.6 67.9 59.0 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 21.6 23.7 21.7 129.0 72.9 64.5 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 26.6 28.8 26.8 138.5 75.1 67.2 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 22.5 23.7 28.3 135.6 75.2 70.5 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 20.1 23.8 31.9 169.3 79.8 75.3 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 21.3 20.8 24.3 118.2 69.5 63.6 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 19.9 27.3 29.7 158.8 81.6 73.2 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 37.7 42.7 32.8 158.9 78.4 72.4 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.4 22.0 20.1 118.1 69.8 61.7 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------