***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.5 -1.3 28.9 30.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 24.5 24.9 24.9 -1.0 33.3 36.0 24.9 25.3 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 24.4 24.7 24.6 -1.4 28.9 30.0 24.8 25.5 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 17.7 17.6 22.5 -1.5 21.4 24.8 17.7 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 24.9 25.0 22.7 -1.4 22.1 26.0 25.2 25.5 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 23.5 23.4 20.3 -1.4 18.6 24.1 23.7 24.3 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.7 24.9 -0.9 35.0 36.6 24.6 25.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 13.0 12.9 20.8 -1.3 20.6 25.8 13.3 13.8 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 24.3 24.3 23.2 -1.4 26.0 27.9 24.6 25.1 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 24.3 24.2 21.7 -1.3 23.3 27.5 24.5 24.9 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 24.7 24.6 22.2 -1.4 21.1 25.2 24.9 25.3 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 23.6 23.6 21.6 -1.5 19.7 23.9 24.1 24.4 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 24.6 24.5 21.2 -1.5 18.7 22.9 25.1 25.4 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 24.4 24.2 23.1 -1.2 30.6 31.6 24.4 25.0 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 25.6 25.6 23.2 -1.4 19.2 24.4 25.7 26.0 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 25.2 25.4 21.8 -1.5 19.9 23.8 25.6 25.9 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 23.9 24.5 25.0 -0.6 39.8 41.7 24.3 24.7 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 23.6 23.8 21.0 -1.2 25.6 29.2 24.1 24.5 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 24.0 24.3 24.9 -1.1 31.9 34.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 19.1 19.3 18.8 -1.2 23.0 27.5 19.5 20.0 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 24.5 24.5 24.0 -1.4 26.5 27.8 24.6 25.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.7 24.8 -0.7 37.5 40.8 24.5 25.0 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 24.4 24.6 24.6 -1.2 32.5 33.5 24.6 25.2 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 23.9 23.9 22.8 -1.3 28.6 29.8 24.2 24.8 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 24.6 24.6 23.0 -1.3 28.5 28.9 24.8 25.4 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 24.5 24.4 20.9 -1.6 18.5 22.3 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 24.2 24.4 23.8 -1.2 29.5 31.2 24.5 25.1 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 25.7 25.4 22.8 -1.5 18.9 23.5 25.8 26.5 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 18.9 19.0 20.0 -1.2 26.0 29.5 19.2 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.9 -1.1 31.4 33.7 24.9 25.2 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------