***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 25.4 -0.9 42.0 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.0 25.7 -0.6 49.1 45.1 25.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.8 25.5 -0.9 43.5 42.0 25.2 26.2 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 18.1 18.9 23.7 -1.0 39.1 40.0 18.2 19.6 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.2 26.4 23.8 -0.9 41.7 41.1 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.6 25.0 21.6 -0.8 43.8 40.8 24.4 25.7 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.8 25.6 -0.6 48.2 45.5 24.5 25.9 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.0 22.2 -0.6 44.6 42.5 13.6 14.6 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.6 24.1 -0.8 42.3 41.7 24.9 25.7 26.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.7 22.9 -0.7 43.7 42.8 24.8 25.9 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 24.9 25.8 23.4 -0.8 42.4 41.4 25.5 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 26.0 25.3 23.0 -0.8 42.6 41.0 24.6 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 24.8 26.2 22.4 -0.9 40.8 39.6 25.5 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.4 24.0 -0.7 44.8 44.1 24.4 25.5 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 26.0 26.7 24.1 -1.0 39.7 39.4 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.4 26.9 23.0 -0.9 41.7 40.3 26.3 27.2 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.5 25.7 -0.3 51.1 48.4 24.1 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.2 22.2 -0.6 45.9 44.1 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.3 25.7 -0.7 48.7 44.6 24.7 25.3 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.3 20.0 -0.5 45.9 43.9 20.1 20.6 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.7 24.9 -0.9 39.6 40.8 25.1 26.2 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.0 25.6 -0.4 51.0 47.7 24.4 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.6 25.5 -0.7 48.5 44.1 24.9 25.6 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.2 23.9 -0.7 44.0 43.4 24.6 25.6 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.1 26.0 23.9 -0.9 40.9 41.5 25.4 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 24.2 25.6 22.4 -0.9 39.8 38.4 25.4 26.1 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.5 24.5 -0.9 43.0 42.3 24.8 25.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 25.8 26.8 23.9 -1.0 39.0 39.2 26.6 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.2 20.4 21.2 -0.5 46.5 44.6 19.3 20.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.3 25.6 25.7 -0.8 47.4 43.7 24.9 25.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------