***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.5 -1.1 35.1 36.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 24.0 24.6 24.8 -0.9 36.5 39.5 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 23.9 24.3 24.6 -1.2 34.7 36.3 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 16.8 16.5 22.6 -1.3 34.0 34.8 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 24.4 25.9 22.7 -1.2 37.9 35.8 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.7 20.3 -1.2 33.4 35.4 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 23.6 24.3 24.8 -0.8 37.6 39.7 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.6 12.8 20.9 -1.2 36.4 36.5 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.9 25.6 23.1 -1.2 38.6 36.5 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.6 21.8 -1.1 38.0 37.0 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.3 25.2 22.2 -1.2 37.7 35.9 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 23.5 23.5 21.7 -1.3 34.6 35.3 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 24.5 24.7 21.0 -1.3 32.6 34.9 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 24.0 24.5 23.1 -1.0 37.3 38.4 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 24.7 24.6 22.9 -1.4 33.0 33.6 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 25.1 25.9 21.7 -1.3 34.7 35.0 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 23.4 24.5 24.9 -0.5 42.1 43.3 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 23.5 23.7 21.1 -1.1 38.0 38.1 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 23.6 24.1 24.8 -0.9 36.2 38.9 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 18.8 19.6 18.8 -1.0 37.1 37.8 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 23.9 25.0 23.9 -1.2 36.2 35.9 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 23.8 25.1 24.8 -0.6 42.1 42.9 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 24.0 24.6 24.6 -1.0 36.6 38.3 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 23.6 24.4 22.9 -1.1 37.1 37.4 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 24.1 24.2 23.0 -1.1 34.7 36.0 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 24.2 24.2 20.9 -1.3 32.3 34.2 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 23.8 24.0 23.7 -1.1 34.8 36.9 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 24.8 24.7 22.6 -1.4 33.6 33.9 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 18.7 19.1 20.1 -1.0 38.3 38.7 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 23.8 24.2 24.8 -1.0 35.2 38.0 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------