***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 -2.5 18.6 20.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 21.8 21.7 22.3 -2.2 19.9 24.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 21.2 21.1 21.7 -2.8 18.4 20.0 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 13.7 13.1 19.1 -2.9 13.9 15.2 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 21.3 21.2 19.7 -2.9 16.0 16.8 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 20.6 19.0 16.9 -3.1 12.1 13.4 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 21.6 21.3 22.3 -2.1 22.5 25.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 9.5 8.8 17.4 -3.0 14.3 17.0 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 20.8 20.9 20.6 -2.8 17.8 18.7 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 20.7 20.7 18.6 -2.9 17.3 18.3 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 21.5 21.2 19.2 -3.0 14.6 16.6 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 20.0 19.7 18.2 -3.1 12.7 15.6 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 21.3 20.4 18.1 -3.3 12.8 13.9 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 21.0 21.4 20.5 -2.6 21.6 22.6 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 22.6 21.5 20.8 -2.8 11.1 13.7 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 21.5 20.8 18.8 -3.1 12.7 14.5 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 21.5 22.2 22.4 -1.7 27.5 30.1 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 20.5 20.4 17.8 -2.8 20.1 20.0 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 21.6 21.3 22.2 -2.3 18.8 23.6 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 15.5 15.2 15.5 -2.9 15.6 17.6 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 20.7 20.8 21.4 -2.9 17.9 18.6 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 22.3 22.6 22.4 -1.7 29.0 30.8 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 21.2 21.1 21.9 -2.5 19.5 22.5 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 20.5 20.6 20.0 -2.8 20.4 20.6 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 21.4 21.1 20.4 -2.7 17.4 19.0 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 20.9 20.1 17.3 -3.3 12.1 13.0 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 21.2 21.0 21.2 -2.5 19.1 20.9 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 22.4 21.4 19.7 -3.0 11.3 13.5 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 15.2 15.5 17.0 -2.8 19.9 20.3 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 21.6 21.4 22.2 -2.4 18.8 22.6 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------