***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.0 -0.8 26.3 31.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 12.9 12.9 15.3 -0.6 34.4 37.6 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 14.4 14.3 14.9 -0.9 25.6 30.2 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 9.6 9.3 13.0 -0.8 22.5 28.6 9.8 10.5 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 11.6 11.4 12.9 -0.8 20.1 27.9 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 10.7 10.4 10.9 -0.7 25.3 28.2 10.7 11.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.1 15.3 -0.6 33.3 37.2 13.1 14.1 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 5.2 4.9 10.9 -0.8 22.6 28.0 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 12.7 12.5 13.2 -0.8 20.3 28.0 13.0 13.3 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 12.6 12.3 11.7 -0.8 22.4 28.8 12.7 13.3 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 12.4 12.2 12.3 -0.8 21.2 27.5 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 10.4 10.1 11.6 -0.9 20.3 25.4 10.9 11.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 11.8 11.6 11.4 -0.8 22.2 26.3 12.1 12.7 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 13.2 13.0 13.3 -0.8 25.0 30.5 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 13.6 13.5 13.7 -0.8 26.1 29.3 13.8 14.4 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 12.6 12.5 12.0 -0.8 21.8 27.0 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.6 15.3 -0.3 40.3 42.7 13.4 13.8 14.5 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 11.2 11.0 11.1 -0.8 24.7 29.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.2 15.2 -0.6 32.2 36.2 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.0 9.1 -0.7 25.5 30.5 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 12.6 12.5 14.2 -0.9 19.7 27.8 13.0 13.2 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.0 15.2 -0.4 38.2 41.5 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 12.7 12.5 14.9 -0.7 27.5 33.4 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 12.9 12.7 13.0 -0.8 24.5 29.4 12.9 13.5 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 12.7 12.4 13.7 -0.8 25.8 30.9 12.9 13.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 11.4 11.1 11.4 -0.8 22.2 25.7 11.6 12.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 12.7 12.9 14.4 -0.8 29.7 31.7 12.9 13.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 11.6 11.6 13.2 -0.8 21.9 27.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 9.5 9.3 10.3 -0.7 25.9 30.9 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 13.3 13.2 15.3 -0.7 30.5 34.7 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------