***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 15.9 -0.4 44.0 45.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.2 16.2 -0.2 48.5 46.9 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.5 15.8 -0.5 44.4 43.7 15.2 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.5 14.0 -0.4 44.5 45.0 10.1 10.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.8 13.8 -0.4 45.6 44.7 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.8 12.0 -0.3 43.9 45.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.1 16.2 -0.3 47.7 46.8 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.5 6.2 12.0 -0.3 43.9 44.0 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.7 14.1 -0.4 44.5 44.7 13.6 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.4 12.7 -0.3 44.8 44.8 13.1 14.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.4 13.2 -0.4 46.3 44.4 13.2 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.4 12.8 -0.4 43.0 43.2 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.1 12.4 -0.4 44.4 44.4 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.3 14.1 -0.4 44.6 43.6 13.6 14.6 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.7 14.6 -0.3 41.8 44.9 14.5 14.8 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.8 13.0 -0.4 44.9 44.8 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.5 16.2 0.0 51.5 50.3 13.5 14.5 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.3 12.1 -0.3 45.8 44.3 11.9 12.4 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.1 16.1 -0.3 46.5 46.2 13.6 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.3 10.2 -0.3 43.3 44.0 7.9 8.4 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.6 15.1 -0.4 44.1 44.0 13.4 14.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.5 16.1 0.0 49.7 49.7 13.2 13.5 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.3 15.7 -0.4 44.3 44.9 13.1 13.5 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.0 13.9 -0.4 45.2 43.2 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.6 14.6 -0.3 44.7 45.7 13.3 13.9 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.4 12.6 -0.3 44.8 45.3 11.7 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 15.3 -0.3 44.5 45.6 13.2 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.6 14.2 -0.4 43.2 44.9 12.3 12.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.0 11.3 -0.3 42.7 44.4 9.5 10.5 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.5 16.2 -0.4 47.4 45.4 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------