***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.7 -1.8 23.3 22.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 10.8 11.4 13.1 -1.3 28.0 28.0 11.9 12.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 12.2 13.2 12.7 -1.7 25.1 23.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 6.7 7.8 10.7 -1.5 23.2 22.9 8.3 8.9 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.9 -1.5 21.9 22.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 9.1 9.2 8.7 -1.6 19.8 20.7 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 11.0 11.6 13.1 -1.5 25.5 26.3 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 3.3 3.2 8.3 -1.7 18.8 20.8 3.9 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 10.6 10.9 11.2 -1.7 22.0 21.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 10.7 10.7 9.5 -1.6 21.7 22.1 11.5 11.9 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 10.3 10.3 10.2 -1.6 21.5 21.6 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.0 -1.8 17.0 18.5 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 10.3 10.4 9.4 -1.5 19.0 20.0 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 11.2 11.9 11.4 -1.4 27.0 27.5 12.1 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.1 -1.6 20.9 20.8 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 10.8 11.1 10.0 -1.5 21.3 21.1 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 11.7 11.9 13.0 -1.2 30.6 31.3 12.1 12.9 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 9.3 9.7 8.8 -1.5 24.5 25.1 10.0 10.7 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.0 -1.4 27.7 27.8 12.1 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 5.0 5.7 6.5 -1.5 23.8 24.6 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 10.4 11.0 12.2 -1.8 21.4 21.2 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.4 13.0 -1.2 31.7 32.1 11.5 12.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 10.8 11.0 12.8 -1.4 26.6 27.5 11.3 12.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.1 -1.5 26.5 26.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.7 -1.7 23.8 22.5 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 9.7 9.5 8.7 -1.6 15.5 17.4 10.3 10.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 10.6 10.7 12.2 -1.7 22.9 22.3 11.4 12.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 9.8 9.9 11.2 -1.6 21.6 21.0 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 7.2 7.5 8.0 -1.5 25.4 25.8 8.0 9.0 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 11.0 11.9 13.1 -1.5 26.2 25.9 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------