***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 80.1 88.4 73.0 106.5 61.1 56.3 64.5 75.5 89.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 80.4 87.8 67.7 112.7 64.3 58.2 59.9 72.4 90.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 100.5 95.3 71.2 102.1 56.6 52.8 80.3 92.9 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 90.3 82.5 72.9 99.5 54.4 52.3 71.0 80.7 87.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 72.7 64.1 65.8 90.8 48.0 45.9 55.7 65.1 76.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 71.8 67.9 79.1 94.4 51.6 48.3 61.7 67.3 79.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 75.2 75.6 67.9 114.0 67.3 59.2 59.2 70.3 73.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 107.0 100.7 77.9 95.1 52.2 47.4 81.1 99.4 115.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 77.0 68.6 69.1 90.2 47.5 44.6 51.0 69.8 86.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 91.5 82.8 80.4 92.8 50.0 45.8 74.2 82.8 95.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 75.3 69.4 64.0 92.2 50.9 47.0 50.8 68.1 77.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 64.1 62.0 64.3 93.6 52.1 47.1 45.9 58.9 73.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 69.2 67.7 69.9 95.3 55.3 48.5 47.5 61.7 81.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 81.3 100.0 84.2 94.6 52.7 47.0 79.1 96.0 110.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 58.4 63.9 68.0 105.4 60.7 56.1 44.6 52.2 72.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 59.9 54.7 65.7 93.7 53.1 47.9 36.8 51.8 80.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 79.3 94.6 68.0 119.1 68.9 60.6 60.4 75.0 91.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 92.1 88.2 86.6 92.8 50.4 44.8 69.6 88.2 98.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 81.4 89.4 68.2 108.7 60.5 55.8 64.0 73.1 90.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 72.7 76.6 88.0 101.5 57.3 50.8 59.7 66.5 87.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 75.3 77.2 70.3 97.1 53.4 49.7 54.8 71.1 82.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 78.4 85.4 70.0 116.7 66.9 59.3 60.1 74.8 85.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 75.2 73.6 68.8 102.5 57.0 52.2 59.0 68.0 82.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 98.4 88.6 79.8 95.0 51.7 46.8 71.3 87.7 114.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 77.3 75.2 78.2 103.9 59.1 54.7 55.4 71.9 89.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 67.0 63.2 61.0 93.2 50.5 47.3 42.9 62.8 73.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 84.9 90.3 78.2 106.3 60.6 55.7 62.2 78.6 96.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 65.5 61.6 70.0 98.9 55.6 51.8 41.1 60.9 70.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 111.7 107.9 89.2 95.4 52.8 46.2 87.6 105.7 118.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 83.3 87.4 68.5 109.0 62.2 56.5 64.3 75.8 90.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------