***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 23.4 18.2 120.6 70.6 55.9 7.1 11.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 22.1 22.8 16.8 137.2 74.4 59.0 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.0 34.8 19.2 126.8 72.5 55.8 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 31.0 36.6 17.7 117.8 73.1 57.7 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.6 25.7 17.5 119.0 71.1 56.5 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.3 31.2 22.5 131.2 73.7 57.5 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.6 26.7 16.6 131.3 75.2 58.7 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.7 37.5 22.7 134.2 70.8 57.3 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.1 20.9 19.5 118.5 68.7 55.0 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 21.3 35.0 24.2 129.4 69.6 56.3 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.1 26.4 17.2 130.8 70.9 56.4 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.1 23.4 18.2 138.9 72.5 57.4 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.7 26.3 20.1 143.8 73.1 58.3 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.1 35.3 24.0 121.1 68.2 55.5 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.9 23.7 15.3 114.4 73.5 55.5 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.4 26.7 18.3 136.8 73.6 57.4 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.1 25.5 16.2 145.1 76.2 60.9 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.4 29.3 27.5 130.6 71.1 56.6 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 22.5 26.8 17.7 135.9 74.4 58.4 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 28.1 25.8 132.8 72.3 57.7 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.2 24.9 19.0 122.3 70.4 55.6 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.3 17.3 17.2 140.6 74.4 61.2 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 6.4 23.6 18.7 132.6 75.0 57.2 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.9 36.9 23.5 125.7 70.1 55.6 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.2 17.1 18.3 112.2 68.6 56.2 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.8 26.9 16.3 143.2 74.2 57.5 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 19.8 27.3 18.7 114.6 69.4 56.1 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 21.7 18.6 126.0 75.3 57.6 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 41.4 27.2 129.8 72.0 57.2 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 29.6 17.1 127.7 73.7 57.1 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------