***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 7.4 16.0 10.8 56.4 42.1 32.8 10.5 18.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 10.1 19.5 9.5 54.1 41.2 32.8 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 8.7 11.3 9.6 47.8 34.8 29.4 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 6.3 9.5 10.4 49.4 38.2 28.6 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 6.3 9.2 8.9 43.9 32.8 28.2 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.6 8.3 12.2 48.8 27.0 27.2 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 6.7 16.0 10.1 60.3 45.1 35.0 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 12.8 18.7 9.9 45.8 32.1 26.7 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 8.8 10.9 9.4 43.5 30.0 25.8 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 6.2 8.5 10.1 45.5 32.6 28.3 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 4.6 7.0 9.5 46.0 31.3 27.9 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.3 6.4 9.5 47.6 32.6 27.3 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 5.5 8.0 11.3 53.4 35.1 31.1 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 12.1 12.3 10.6 43.8 30.0 26.5 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 4.2 7.5 10.1 53.5 44.5 32.3 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 3.3 5.5 10.3 48.9 31.9 28.6 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 8.3 14.3 9.4 57.3 45.8 34.5 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 10.4 9.7 8.6 35.8 22.2 21.3 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.4 52.2 39.0 32.1 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 8.3 11.0 12.6 56.7 35.6 31.7 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 5.3 8.3 9.4 46.0 33.8 27.7 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.5 21.0 10.4 63.0 47.5 37.1 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 6.3 11.0 9.2 47.4 34.2 29.6 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 11.7 10.8 9.2 39.8 26.0 24.4 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 8.0 14.0 11.8 55.8 39.0 30.7 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 3.5 5.3 11.5 56.4 35.3 30.3 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 8.0 17.1 12.0 58.1 41.6 32.8 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 4.0 6.4 9.6 48.4 39.1 29.2 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 11.7 11.0 11.1 45.0 26.9 26.0 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 10.1 13.0 9.9 54.5 40.1 32.7 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------