***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 19.0 22.6 25.1 140.5 77.2 66.8 5.9 13.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 25.7 37.8 25.6 160.1 81.5 73.0 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 23.0 26.2 23.2 129.3 73.9 65.1 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.8 22.0 22.1 105.6 65.7 55.6 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.2 19.6 93.5 60.7 51.6 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.1 21.9 96.1 59.0 49.3 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.8 25.1 26.4 162.2 82.4 73.3 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 29.2 26.4 24.3 93.2 55.8 48.7 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.4 16.8 19.9 96.2 58.3 52.8 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.6 16.8 23.6 88.7 53.6 47.7 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.6 16.6 19.4 90.9 57.7 48.8 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.6 18.6 89.6 56.4 48.0 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.3 14.9 18.4 86.3 59.3 45.7 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 23.0 32.9 28.3 117.9 69.1 62.1 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.8 20.8 23.4 124.1 73.1 61.7 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.8 18.0 90.6 60.0 48.5 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.1 23.1 28.1 179.5 85.7 75.9 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 20.3 18.8 25.9 95.2 56.5 51.8 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 23.0 33.0 24.4 146.8 78.5 70.0 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.6 26.6 100.9 58.8 51.7 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.6 16.4 21.8 111.1 67.1 57.8 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 18.6 23.7 26.3 165.0 81.5 73.7 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 18.9 26.6 23.7 133.3 76.4 66.7 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.2 23.7 24.2 105.5 64.1 56.5 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.6 20.3 26.0 129.9 73.6 63.7 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 14.2 17.1 90.1 59.7 48.4 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 19.1 25.2 27.2 143.2 78.4 67.7 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.6 20.9 99.5 65.4 53.3 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 26.9 28.2 25.6 94.7 56.4 50.7 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 21.2 28.0 24.6 149.6 79.6 70.6 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------