***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.8 25.6 0.2 56.4 54.6 24.9 25.5 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.4 25.4 -0.1 49.3 49.5 24.8 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.7 25.8 0.3 57.0 55.2 24.8 25.4 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 19.0 19.5 23.7 1.0 74.3 66.4 17.6 18.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 26.7 26.6 24.2 0.7 68.3 61.8 25.1 25.6 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 25.6 26.1 22.1 1.1 77.0 69.8 23.6 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.1 25.3 -0.1 50.4 49.7 24.3 25.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.4 21.9 0.4 62.7 57.6 13.1 13.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 26.1 26.2 24.7 0.7 67.3 60.8 24.4 25.0 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 25.8 25.8 23.0 0.6 65.0 59.4 24.3 24.9 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 26.4 26.9 24.3 0.9 71.2 64.2 24.9 25.3 26.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.8 23.5 0.9 71.7 64.1 24.1 24.4 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 26.9 27.2 23.5 1.1 75.0 67.8 24.8 25.5 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.9 23.6 -0.2 50.0 48.1 24.6 24.9 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 27.3 28.2 25.8 1.4 81.9 73.1 25.7 25.9 27.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 27.4 27.9 24.0 1.2 76.9 69.2 25.5 26.0 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.0 24.9 25.2 -0.1 51.8 49.7 24.1 24.9 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.7 22.0 0.3 58.2 55.2 24.0 24.4 25.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.0 25.5 0.0 51.0 51.0 24.3 25.0 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.9 19.4 0.0 52.5 51.4 19.5 19.9 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.9 25.4 0.4 60.2 56.9 24.6 25.2 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 24.4 25.1 24.9 -0.2 47.7 48.3 24.4 25.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.3 25.5 0.2 54.7 53.2 24.7 25.3 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.9 23.9 0.2 55.8 53.7 24.2 24.7 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.9 24.2 0.3 58.2 56.1 24.6 25.4 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 26.4 26.9 23.1 1.3 78.8 70.9 24.5 25.2 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.5 24.8 0.2 56.9 55.0 24.3 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 27.1 27.8 24.7 1.4 81.0 72.3 25.7 26.2 27.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.0 19.7 21.0 0.1 53.9 52.4 19.1 19.5 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.2 25.5 0.0 50.8 50.7 24.7 25.2 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------