***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 28.5 28.1 27.5 1.0 64.8 60.3 25.6 27.6 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 28.1 27.9 27.5 0.9 63.4 59.3 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 28.2 28.5 28.0 1.2 66.3 61.5 25.3 26.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 21.8 21.5 26.0 1.6 70.3 65.0 19.0 19.9 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 28.8 28.7 26.1 1.3 66.2 62.6 25.7 27.1 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 27.1 26.4 23.8 1.4 68.8 64.4 24.5 25.5 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 28.2 27.7 27.5 0.9 63.1 59.5 24.8 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 16.3 15.8 24.2 1.1 64.5 60.7 13.5 15.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 28.2 28.0 26.3 1.3 65.8 62.3 25.4 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 27.8 27.6 24.9 1.2 64.4 61.1 25.3 26.1 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 28.5 28.2 26.0 1.4 67.8 63.5 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 27.3 27.0 25.8 1.5 69.1 64.2 24.9 25.8 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 28.4 27.8 24.9 1.5 68.3 64.5 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 24.2 27.2 25.3 0.6 56.4 56.8 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 29.3 29.8 27.4 2.0 77.0 68.7 26.1 27.9 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.0 25.7 1.7 70.0 65.4 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 27.7 27.4 27.4 0.9 63.2 59.2 24.8 26.4 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 27.2 26.8 24.1 1.0 61.4 59.6 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 27.8 27.5 27.6 1.0 64.3 59.7 24.6 26.5 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.9 21.3 0.6 57.7 56.8 19.8 21.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 28.2 28.4 27.1 1.1 63.7 61.0 25.4 26.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.6 27.0 0.7 61.5 58.0 25.0 26.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 28.0 27.8 27.6 1.1 64.7 60.4 25.0 27.0 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 27.4 27.1 25.7 1.0 61.6 59.7 24.7 26.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.1 25.8 1.0 64.2 60.5 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 27.8 27.8 25.4 1.9 73.0 68.0 25.2 26.3 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 27.5 27.6 26.7 1.0 64.6 60.8 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 29.5 29.9 26.6 1.9 73.1 67.1 26.3 27.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 19.0 21.6 23.0 0.7 58.9 58.0 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 28.0 27.8 27.5 0.9 63.8 59.6 25.1 26.9 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------