***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.8 26.7 0.7 62.8 58.8 25.8 26.7 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.9 26.7 0.7 62.4 57.6 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.2 27.1 1.0 65.4 60.0 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 20.9 21.3 25.1 1.4 70.1 63.8 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.5 25.3 1.1 66.1 61.1 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.9 23.0 1.3 69.0 63.2 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.3 27.0 26.7 0.7 63.4 57.6 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.7 23.2 0.7 62.8 57.5 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.0 25.5 1.1 67.0 60.6 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.8 24.1 0.9 65.1 58.8 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.6 25.1 1.2 66.2 62.0 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.8 24.8 1.2 66.3 61.9 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 26.7 28.3 24.0 1.4 68.3 63.6 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.4 24.5 0.3 54.2 53.4 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.3 26.4 1.7 74.1 67.4 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 27.7 28.8 24.9 1.6 69.8 65.1 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.4 26.7 0.8 61.3 58.3 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.5 23.2 0.7 63.4 56.8 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.2 26.8 0.8 63.4 58.0 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.3 20.4 0.3 57.6 53.6 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.7 27.4 26.3 0.9 65.3 59.4 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.8 26.4 0.7 60.7 56.8 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.5 27.1 26.8 0.8 63.1 58.2 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.5 24.8 0.7 62.5 56.9 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.5 25.0 0.7 63.3 58.6 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 27.3 28.0 24.5 1.8 73.6 67.2 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.7 27.0 25.8 0.7 62.6 58.6 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 28.8 29.3 25.7 1.7 73.3 66.8 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.5 21.5 22.0 0.4 59.1 54.6 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.9 26.8 0.7 63.6 58.0 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------