***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 21.9 23.3 22.5 -1.4 31.5 32.2 23.6 24.5 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 21.9 22.2 21.8 -2.4 22.7 24.3 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 22.3 23.3 22.4 -1.7 31.0 31.5 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.6 20.5 -0.2 49.1 47.3 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.8 21.3 -0.7 41.3 41.3 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.9 19.9 0.4 56.4 55.5 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 21.8 22.6 21.9 -2.3 24.0 24.5 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.2 12.0 18.6 -1.0 37.5 38.0 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.8 22.1 -0.8 40.9 40.2 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.6 20.0 -0.9 40.3 40.0 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.2 21.8 -0.5 44.4 44.0 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.4 20.1 -0.6 43.7 42.8 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.3 21.6 0.0 51.4 50.1 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 21.8 22.0 20.7 -2.0 26.8 28.7 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.7 25.8 23.7 0.4 58.8 56.0 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 26.1 25.9 21.5 -0.1 51.3 49.6 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 21.3 21.5 21.4 -2.6 22.3 22.5 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 21.8 22.7 18.6 -1.4 33.7 34.3 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 21.9 22.1 21.9 -2.2 24.7 26.2 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 17.2 18.1 16.4 -1.5 32.7 33.7 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 22.6 23.8 22.6 -1.2 33.5 35.9 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 21.5 21.9 21.2 -2.6 22.9 22.7 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 22.0 22.8 22.0 -1.9 28.0 29.2 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 21.6 22.6 20.9 -1.6 32.2 32.4 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 23.2 23.8 21.7 -1.1 35.5 36.1 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.5 19.7 -0.1 49.8 49.1 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 22.1 23.6 22.0 -1.4 32.1 33.0 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 25.8 26.0 22.1 0.4 57.4 55.3 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 16.9 17.4 17.7 -1.6 31.8 33.2 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 22.0 22.8 22.1 -2.1 25.5 26.5 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------