***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.8 15.6 0.2 61.3 56.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.9 15.3 0.0 56.6 52.5 12.7 13.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.6 15.7 0.2 60.6 56.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 11.3 11.5 13.3 0.6 68.5 63.6 9.8 10.2 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.4 13.4 0.4 62.8 59.7 11.8 12.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 11.6 11.7 11.3 0.6 73.5 67.3 10.6 11.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 15.3 0.0 55.6 51.7 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.3 10.7 0.2 59.2 56.3 5.3 6.0 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 13.5 0.3 61.0 57.2 12.9 13.2 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.2 11.7 0.2 58.7 55.7 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.4 12.9 0.4 66.1 61.5 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.3 11.8 0.4 66.6 61.6 10.7 11.0 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.1 11.6 0.4 66.8 61.4 12.0 12.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.8 13.0 -0.1 49.5 47.4 13.2 13.8 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 14.8 14.9 15.0 0.8 77.9 70.5 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 13.9 13.9 12.4 0.5 69.6 63.9 12.7 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.0 15.1 0.0 54.6 51.6 13.4 13.8 14.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.0 10.8 0.0 55.2 51.4 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.7 15.3 0.1 57.6 53.3 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.6 8.7 0.0 51.2 50.1 7.1 7.6 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 14.8 0.3 62.2 57.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.2 14.9 -0.1 51.9 49.6 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 15.1 0.1 57.8 53.3 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.5 13.0 0.0 56.4 51.6 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.9 14.4 0.3 62.9 58.4 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 11.0 0.4 63.7 60.5 11.4 12.0 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.8 15.0 0.3 61.4 57.3 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.0 13.9 0.7 75.1 68.3 11.8 12.1 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.2 10.0 -0.1 51.0 49.0 9.5 10.2 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.3 15.5 0.1 58.5 53.6 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------