***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.3 16.5 0.7 65.5 60.5 14.4 15.2 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.9 16.3 0.5 61.5 57.9 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.0 16.7 0.7 65.4 60.9 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 12.4 12.8 14.3 1.0 70.4 64.7 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.4 14.0 0.7 64.3 60.7 12.3 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.8 12.1 1.0 70.3 65.0 11.3 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.9 16.3 0.5 62.0 57.7 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.1 11.5 0.6 61.6 59.1 5.7 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.9 14.8 14.1 0.6 63.6 59.5 13.4 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.6 12.4 0.6 61.4 58.7 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.2 13.4 0.8 64.4 61.7 13.0 13.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.4 12.5 0.7 64.1 61.4 10.9 11.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 12.0 0.7 62.1 59.8 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.8 13.8 0.2 56.3 54.7 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 15.8 15.9 15.7 1.2 73.4 66.8 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.0 14.9 13.0 0.9 65.9 63.1 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.5 16.2 0.5 59.9 57.1 13.7 14.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.7 11.5 0.5 59.3 57.8 12.1 12.4 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.8 16.3 0.6 61.9 58.6 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.6 8.6 9.2 0.3 56.2 55.6 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.5 15.5 0.6 63.5 60.2 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.2 15.9 0.4 57.5 56.6 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.6 16.1 0.5 62.1 58.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.6 13.7 0.5 60.0 58.1 13.6 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.6 15.0 0.7 64.5 60.6 13.2 13.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.4 11.8 0.7 62.6 60.5 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.4 15.8 0.6 64.4 60.3 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 13.9 14.1 14.7 1.2 72.6 66.4 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.3 10.8 0.4 57.0 56.2 9.4 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.0 16.5 0.6 62.8 58.8 13.7 14.4 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------