***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.5 14.5 -0.5 39.7 43.7 13.2 13.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.0 14.2 -0.6 39.5 42.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.0 14.6 -0.5 41.8 44.0 14.6 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.0 12.3 -0.2 45.4 47.6 9.4 10.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.8 12.4 -0.4 43.2 45.0 11.2 12.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.5 10.2 0.0 48.9 49.8 10.3 11.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.2 -0.7 38.7 41.7 12.9 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.3 9.8 -0.3 43.7 46.2 5.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.3 12.4 12.4 -0.6 41.0 42.8 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.6 10.7 -0.4 42.4 44.3 12.5 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 11.9 12.2 11.9 -0.3 44.6 46.5 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.9 10.9 -0.2 45.9 48.2 10.2 11.1 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 11.5 12.1 10.6 -0.5 41.2 43.8 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.3 11.9 -0.9 33.1 37.7 13.3 13.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.7 14.0 0.0 48.9 50.7 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.6 11.4 -0.3 43.6 46.3 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.8 14.0 -0.6 39.3 42.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 9.9 -0.7 39.4 41.3 10.8 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.4 14.3 -0.6 41.1 43.2 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.0 7.9 -0.6 38.7 42.1 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.8 13.7 -0.6 40.3 42.7 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 12.4 12.9 14.0 -0.7 38.8 41.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.2 12.6 14.2 -0.5 42.2 43.8 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.7 12.0 -0.8 38.0 40.3 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.2 13.4 -0.5 40.1 44.3 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.8 9.9 -0.5 40.2 43.6 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.8 13.9 -0.5 39.4 43.7 12.6 13.1 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.2 12.8 -0.1 47.8 49.4 11.5 12.2 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.0 9.1 -0.6 38.7 41.0 9.5 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.4 14.5 -0.6 39.8 42.9 13.3 13.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------