***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 13.0 12.4 13.9 -0.2 47.5 47.6 11.6 12.7 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.1 13.2 -0.7 38.7 39.1 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.6 14.3 13.8 -0.3 45.6 45.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.6 11.7 0.3 55.5 54.4 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.3 11.3 12.3 0.1 52.9 52.7 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.3 9.9 0.6 63.0 61.6 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.1 13.3 -0.7 39.9 38.9 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.4 9.1 -0.3 46.5 45.3 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.1 12.3 0.0 49.4 49.5 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.1 11.7 10.2 -0.2 47.4 46.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.8 11.8 0.1 54.1 52.8 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.0 9.8 10.5 0.1 54.4 52.5 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.5 10.9 0.4 62.0 58.8 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.3 11.4 -0.6 40.0 40.8 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 13.8 13.6 13.9 0.8 67.6 65.1 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.4 11.5 0.3 59.8 56.8 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.0 12.9 -0.9 35.3 36.8 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.1 9.4 -0.5 41.8 42.7 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.2 13.3 -0.7 39.4 39.8 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.9 6.2 7.6 -0.4 44.2 44.5 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.5 12.4 13.4 0.0 49.3 49.8 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 11.2 10.9 12.9 -0.9 34.5 35.3 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.1 13.2 -0.6 40.5 41.1 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.5 11.6 -0.5 41.6 42.4 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.6 13.3 0.1 51.9 51.6 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.0 9.8 0.3 56.0 55.5 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 13.0 12.7 13.6 -0.1 49.3 49.4 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.5 12.5 0.6 63.4 60.7 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.3 8.6 -0.5 40.2 41.1 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.7 13.6 -0.6 43.0 41.5 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------