***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 74.7 142.0 77.5 66.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 80.0 110.8 70.4 136.5 76.4 65.0 59.9 72.4 90.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 114.9 118.2 71.7 136.2 74.2 66.2 80.3 92.9 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 107.5 88.2 73.5 128.3 69.8 64.2 71.0 80.7 87.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 86.0 94.5 75.5 133.5 74.8 65.9 55.7 65.1 76.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 71.4 77.7 86.8 111.1 59.4 55.8 61.7 67.3 79.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 74.1 93.6 72.8 137.7 78.6 65.3 59.2 70.3 73.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 106.7 106.0 70.7 110.2 60.3 55.4 81.1 99.4 115.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 91.1 102.4 77.3 135.3 75.8 66.7 51.0 69.8 86.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 90.7 97.1 78.5 120.7 69.8 61.1 74.2 82.8 95.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 74.1 79.4 63.7 121.2 68.0 60.2 50.8 68.1 77.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 63.6 68.0 58.9 111.9 61.8 55.1 45.9 58.9 73.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 69.2 81.1 71.9 112.3 65.4 55.8 47.5 61.7 81.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 105.1 136.8 78.5 118.7 73.5 62.2 79.1 96.0 110.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 58.7 70.8 61.2 117.4 64.8 58.9 44.6 52.2 72.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 59.1 80.9 67.1 115.9 67.5 57.8 36.8 51.8 80.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 88.4 99.1 69.8 140.3 80.1 65.2 60.4 75.0 91.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 91.6 99.6 88.2 118.8 70.7 62.2 69.6 88.2 98.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 95.6 103.1 69.3 134.0 74.3 64.4 64.0 73.1 90.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 58.0 83.1 88.6 110.4 60.2 57.5 59.7 66.5 87.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 83.6 86.2 71.0 137.9 73.3 67.0 54.8 71.1 82.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 86.2 90.7 68.6 136.5 77.4 64.4 60.1 74.8 85.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 73.3 89.0 69.8 129.6 72.2 64.0 59.0 68.0 82.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 95.9 128.3 79.6 121.7 73.2 63.0 71.3 87.7 114.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 87.9 92.9 85.8 139.7 70.5 67.8 55.4 71.9 89.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 67.3 66.6 59.1 105.8 56.1 52.9 42.9 62.8 73.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 95.9 105.8 86.5 143.2 75.9 68.3 62.2 78.6 96.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 65.5 70.8 66.3 121.0 66.8 60.6 41.1 60.9 70.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 122.3 118.5 87.0 114.6 67.0 60.6 87.6 105.7 118.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 81.6 108.7 72.3 137.6 77.1 65.8 64.3 75.8 90.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------