***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 17.5 148.3 78.5 64.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 21.7 20.9 13.5 116.8 71.8 60.0 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 30.4 35.4 16.0 132.9 73.6 62.9 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 29.3 39.3 16.4 132.1 75.6 61.2 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 27.0 30.9 16.2 129.4 74.0 60.8 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.8 24.4 20.4 107.3 64.9 52.9 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 23.1 26.9 14.5 124.2 75.5 61.3 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.4 31.6 15.5 113.5 67.6 55.8 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.6 27.0 16.7 129.7 75.9 61.2 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 19.6 36.7 17.3 120.4 71.3 59.0 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.5 26.5 13.6 118.4 72.0 58.1 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.8 20.4 12.5 113.6 67.7 55.2 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.6 20.6 15.3 108.1 66.7 52.6 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.3 35.1 18.1 117.5 68.1 60.2 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 23.7 13.2 114.8 73.6 58.6 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.1 24.4 14.6 115.8 69.7 55.6 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.2 21.8 11.7 108.0 69.7 56.8 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.6 23.4 19.6 117.8 67.5 58.7 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.2 21.1 13.5 114.8 69.2 59.7 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.4 20.3 18.9 108.0 64.0 53.7 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 22.3 28.2 15.9 138.9 77.0 63.0 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.6 15.0 10.7 94.9 65.6 54.2 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.5 17.4 14.6 117.3 70.1 60.9 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 35.7 34.7 18.2 122.2 69.0 60.7 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 22.8 28.5 20.1 152.8 78.5 64.1 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.9 20.0 10.9 95.1 61.2 48.7 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 28.4 34.0 20.2 153.8 78.8 64.4 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.0 20.9 14.9 122.5 73.9 59.0 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.2 34.6 18.9 113.4 67.0 57.3 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 23.3 30.5 15.0 126.2 75.4 61.9 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------