***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 163.5 76.5 64.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 27.9 32.7 18.0 150.5 79.3 63.7 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 33.1 40.8 17.5 148.7 74.9 64.0 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 31.3 36.7 19.5 163.9 77.7 66.7 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 26.7 33.0 20.3 174.1 79.2 67.8 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 17.9 22.0 25.0 143.7 72.3 60.8 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 21.0 27.1 18.8 154.1 78.6 63.1 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 26.1 30.9 19.8 141.0 73.9 62.8 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 26.9 33.8 20.3 171.3 78.8 67.3 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 34.3 42.4 21.2 149.4 76.2 64.7 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 21.4 24.2 17.5 163.9 76.2 64.7 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.7 22.7 16.3 152.8 76.0 62.7 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.4 21.8 19.6 147.6 72.6 61.3 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 30.0 35.6 19.1 130.6 72.3 61.7 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 18.5 22.2 14.6 134.7 73.7 61.1 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.3 23.0 18.6 160.1 75.5 63.1 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 24.8 29.7 18.4 152.9 77.8 63.1 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 29.9 31.4 23.0 136.4 73.5 63.8 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 32.3 39.6 17.0 145.6 77.5 63.2 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 28.0 28.5 24.3 130.4 72.0 61.7 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 25.1 35.9 18.3 169.8 80.1 65.8 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 25.3 30.5 17.4 150.1 76.9 63.1 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 28.5 31.2 16.1 139.5 74.1 61.9 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 31.4 34.2 19.8 135.9 73.5 63.6 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 25.3 32.6 22.6 166.5 80.0 67.3 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 27.5 15.6 129.5 72.9 59.3 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 26.1 31.9 22.0 161.3 77.0 65.4 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 22.9 27.5 17.2 152.8 76.7 64.0 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 37.7 40.8 22.8 131.6 71.0 62.6 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 30.2 37.5 18.1 151.6 77.5 63.8 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------