***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 17.6 139.2 73.8 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.7 27.4 18.0 137.3 68.6 60.0 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.5 29.6 17.2 138.2 69.3 60.9 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.6 33.3 17.3 118.8 72.3 59.6 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 20.6 29.7 17.4 123.8 71.6 60.6 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.4 22.8 112.6 61.7 53.7 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 19.9 26.2 18.5 136.3 70.4 61.1 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 28.3 31.8 16.6 107.2 61.1 54.3 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 25.9 26.5 17.7 132.9 72.1 61.4 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 24.2 18.5 121.3 66.1 57.9 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.9 30.9 14.8 114.1 68.9 56.5 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.5 15.0 13.7 105.1 63.5 53.8 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.1 19.2 18.0 107.0 64.0 52.4 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.7 36.0 20.3 133.8 71.7 58.1 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 12.8 19.4 14.6 110.4 68.9 58.1 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.2 16.6 110.1 65.5 54.0 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 20.1 30.9 18.4 143.0 72.3 60.9 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.6 23.0 21.3 123.1 63.9 58.2 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.7 26.5 17.9 140.1 70.1 59.9 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.2 18.9 21.5 105.1 54.4 53.8 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 26.6 33.4 16.2 136.3 74.1 61.6 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.5 33.6 18.5 145.7 72.5 60.5 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.2 28.7 18.2 140.5 73.7 60.2 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 25.3 28.1 19.6 131.6 68.9 59.3 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 30.5 32.3 20.4 133.3 73.9 61.5 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.6 14.5 101.4 61.0 50.7 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 33.2 38.4 20.7 137.5 73.4 62.0 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.9 16.6 16.1 114.7 68.6 57.5 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 24.8 21.1 117.9 62.3 56.6 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.4 26.5 17.8 136.2 68.3 60.5 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------