***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 20.7 124.8 72.5 58.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.5 31.7 21.0 139.7 75.4 61.8 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.9 29.4 21.0 128.2 76.8 60.8 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.6 21.2 20.2 110.3 64.9 57.7 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.5 16.1 21.5 118.1 71.0 58.1 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 9.6 16.3 18.6 86.7 54.5 47.5 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.2 21.0 21.0 136.1 72.7 62.9 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 13.9 25.4 18.8 89.7 52.7 44.4 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.7 18.6 22.6 118.5 72.2 56.1 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.7 20.7 21.5 101.4 60.0 49.3 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.8 17.2 17.7 102.2 61.9 50.5 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.1 16.0 16.3 91.6 57.5 46.2 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.4 15.4 18.9 96.3 60.5 50.3 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.8 26.7 21.0 100.3 62.3 52.2 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 12.4 16.3 18.8 113.3 61.6 58.1 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 8.1 16.5 17.2 93.0 59.1 49.2 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.9 20.6 21.4 151.8 79.4 64.6 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.3 19.2 24.2 103.9 61.4 51.5 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 31.6 20.9 134.8 75.0 60.3 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.6 23.8 101.4 59.4 51.0 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.5 18.8 20.6 118.7 71.1 55.5 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 17.9 23.3 22.0 149.9 79.5 63.7 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.4 24.4 20.9 123.5 73.9 58.6 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.4 23.7 22.1 104.5 64.3 52.4 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.8 20.0 22.8 117.5 66.7 58.2 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.5 16.4 18.0 100.6 62.2 51.2 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.4 18.0 23.6 127.1 70.4 60.4 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.1 18.0 104.5 60.0 54.6 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 27.6 29.3 24.1 100.9 59.4 50.9 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.0 26.5 21.4 136.9 74.8 62.7 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------