***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.4 -1.3 27.1 29.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 24.4 24.4 24.1 -1.5 23.5 27.4 24.8 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 24.4 24.4 24.4 -1.4 24.1 28.2 24.8 25.4 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 17.6 17.5 22.8 -1.3 21.3 27.7 17.6 18.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 24.9 24.8 22.8 -1.4 21.6 26.6 25.1 25.6 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.4 20.8 -0.9 27.8 32.9 23.6 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.0 24.1 -1.5 23.0 27.4 24.3 25.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 13.0 12.9 21.0 -1.2 21.8 27.4 13.1 13.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 24.1 24.2 23.2 -1.4 21.4 26.5 24.4 25.0 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 24.3 24.1 21.7 -1.3 22.3 27.0 24.3 24.9 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 24.8 24.7 22.4 -1.2 26.3 29.0 24.9 25.3 26.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 23.8 23.8 22.0 -1.1 23.7 29.4 24.1 24.4 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.9 24.6 21.7 -1.0 25.6 31.1 24.8 25.5 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 24.2 24.2 22.7 -1.5 20.7 26.1 24.6 24.9 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 25.6 25.6 23.9 -1.0 30.2 33.6 25.7 25.9 27.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.4 25.4 22.2 -1.1 26.4 30.4 25.5 26.0 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 23.7 23.7 23.7 -1.6 22.0 26.2 24.1 24.9 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 23.6 23.5 20.9 -1.4 21.2 26.1 24.0 24.4 25.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 24.0 23.9 24.3 -1.5 23.6 27.9 24.3 25.0 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 19.2 18.9 18.7 -1.4 19.5 25.5 19.5 19.9 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 24.4 24.2 24.0 -1.4 21.4 26.8 24.6 25.2 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 24.1 24.0 23.8 -1.6 22.4 26.9 24.4 25.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 24.3 24.0 24.1 -1.4 23.3 28.1 24.7 25.3 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 23.9 23.7 22.7 -1.4 20.7 26.7 24.2 24.7 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 24.6 24.3 22.9 -1.4 19.1 27.0 24.6 25.4 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 24.6 24.3 21.4 -1.1 21.2 29.5 24.5 25.2 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 24.2 23.9 23.6 -1.3 22.2 28.3 24.3 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 25.6 25.4 23.3 -1.1 27.0 30.8 25.7 26.2 27.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 18.8 18.8 19.9 -1.4 20.6 25.9 19.1 19.5 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 24.4 24.1 24.3 -1.4 24.2 28.1 24.7 25.2 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------