***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 25.3 -1.0 41.2 40.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.1 25.2 -1.1 40.4 39.3 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.9 25.9 25.4 -1.0 42.8 40.6 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.2 18.7 23.8 -1.1 39.9 39.6 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 27.1 25.8 23.7 -1.2 39.2 38.7 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 25.8 24.9 21.7 -0.8 45.0 43.2 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 24.4 24.7 25.1 -1.0 41.1 39.7 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.5 22.1 -0.9 41.5 41.4 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 24.5 25.1 24.0 -1.1 38.1 38.8 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.3 22.7 -1.0 39.8 40.2 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 27.2 25.6 23.3 -1.0 41.9 41.0 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 24.2 24.6 23.1 -0.9 41.8 41.7 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.8 25.8 22.5 -0.9 41.1 41.2 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 24.5 25.1 23.7 -1.0 40.8 40.7 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.6 24.6 -0.7 45.1 44.1 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.1 23.0 -1.0 41.2 41.0 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 24.1 24.1 24.8 -1.1 38.6 38.9 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 24.1 24.6 22.0 -1.0 39.1 40.3 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 26.3 24.7 25.3 -1.0 41.1 39.8 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 19.0 20.3 19.8 -0.9 43.5 41.1 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.4 24.8 -1.1 40.2 39.3 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.9 -1.0 38.4 39.8 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.5 25.1 25.1 -1.0 43.0 40.8 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.2 24.7 23.7 -1.0 39.7 40.4 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.0 23.7 -1.1 38.6 38.8 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 24.3 25.7 22.4 -1.0 39.6 40.3 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.8 25.2 24.4 -1.0 40.1 40.0 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.4 24.2 -0.9 42.6 41.7 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 19.0 19.7 21.0 -0.9 40.4 41.1 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.3 25.3 -1.0 42.2 39.8 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------