***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.0 -1.4 29.3 32.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.5 23.4 23.6 -1.7 26.0 30.5 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 23.0 23.8 23.9 -1.5 26.3 31.5 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 16.1 15.7 22.5 -1.3 31.2 32.8 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 23.5 24.8 22.4 -1.4 30.5 31.8 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 22.8 23.6 20.7 -0.8 38.8 39.0 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 23.2 23.1 23.6 -1.6 26.6 31.1 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 12.0 12.7 20.8 -1.2 31.7 33.8 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 22.9 23.9 22.7 -1.5 28.2 31.1 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 22.8 24.0 21.4 -1.4 29.6 31.9 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 23.9 24.7 22.0 -1.2 32.5 33.9 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 23.1 23.8 21.8 -1.0 34.4 35.9 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 24.2 25.2 21.3 -1.0 37.0 37.1 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 23.1 23.6 22.2 -1.7 25.7 30.0 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 24.3 24.3 23.3 -1.0 33.0 36.4 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 24.5 25.8 21.8 -1.1 35.1 35.8 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 22.9 22.3 23.3 -1.7 24.5 30.2 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 22.5 23.2 20.5 -1.5 28.0 30.8 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 23.0 22.9 23.7 -1.7 25.9 30.5 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 18.2 19.0 18.4 -1.5 28.6 31.4 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 23.1 23.6 23.5 -1.5 26.8 31.3 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 23.4 22.8 23.3 -1.7 24.7 30.4 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 23.2 23.4 23.6 -1.6 25.8 30.6 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 22.6 23.4 22.2 -1.6 26.4 30.6 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 23.4 23.1 22.5 -1.5 26.8 31.5 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 23.9 24.3 21.1 -1.1 34.7 36.1 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 23.2 23.0 23.1 -1.4 28.2 32.2 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 24.2 25.1 22.9 -1.1 33.2 35.2 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 18.0 18.3 19.5 -1.5 28.0 30.6 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 23.3 23.4 23.8 -1.6 26.7 31.1 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------