***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 22.4 -1.7 30.2 32.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 22.2 23.1 21.9 -2.1 27.9 27.5 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 22.5 23.1 22.3 -1.8 29.9 30.2 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 15.2 15.9 20.2 -1.7 24.7 28.9 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 22.9 23.6 20.7 -1.7 24.5 28.8 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 21.7 22.4 18.5 -1.4 26.3 32.5 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 22.0 22.7 21.8 -2.1 25.5 27.6 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 10.8 11.2 18.4 -2.0 22.2 26.6 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 22.3 22.8 21.5 -1.8 25.4 28.9 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 22.1 22.8 19.6 -1.8 23.8 28.5 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 23.0 23.2 20.4 -1.6 25.1 29.9 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 21.7 21.6 19.4 -1.8 24.1 28.3 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 23.3 23.2 19.7 -1.5 25.8 32.1 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 21.8 21.8 20.6 -2.2 23.6 26.9 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 23.5 24.4 22.2 -1.3 26.3 32.3 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 23.6 23.6 20.2 -1.5 25.9 31.0 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 21.4 22.4 21.4 -2.3 25.2 25.8 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 21.5 21.7 18.6 -2.0 21.8 27.5 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 22.1 22.2 22.0 -2.1 28.0 28.0 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 16.8 16.7 16.2 -2.3 17.7 23.2 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 22.5 23.1 22.1 -1.9 26.6 29.2 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 21.7 22.6 21.4 -2.3 25.5 25.5 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 22.2 22.7 21.9 -2.0 26.9 28.4 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 21.4 22.0 20.5 -2.0 24.3 28.4 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 22.8 23.1 21.1 -1.8 27.1 29.3 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 22.3 22.4 18.7 -1.8 23.9 28.3 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 21.9 23.0 21.7 -1.7 29.2 31.0 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 23.6 24.1 21.1 -1.4 25.3 30.9 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 16.5 16.6 17.6 -2.1 20.8 25.9 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 22.5 23.1 22.2 -2.0 29.8 29.1 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------