***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 -0.9 23.8 29.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 12.8 12.4 14.6 -1.1 19.6 26.8 12.7 13.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 14.3 13.9 14.6 -1.0 20.6 27.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 9.3 9.1 12.8 -0.9 17.6 25.6 9.8 10.2 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 11.4 11.2 12.6 -1.0 16.3 23.3 11.8 12.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 10.4 10.2 10.9 -0.7 23.5 31.0 10.6 11.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 13.0 12.7 14.6 -1.1 19.7 26.9 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 5.0 4.8 10.4 -1.2 13.6 19.5 5.3 6.0 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 12.4 12.2 12.9 -1.1 16.2 21.9 12.9 13.2 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 12.3 12.0 11.2 -1.1 15.0 20.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.0 -1.0 15.7 23.2 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 10.2 9.9 11.3 -1.0 13.4 21.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 11.7 11.3 11.1 -0.8 15.3 25.6 12.0 12.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 13.0 12.7 12.7 -1.2 13.6 21.6 13.2 13.8 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.8 -0.7 25.6 31.2 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 12.5 12.2 11.9 -0.8 16.9 25.9 12.7 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 13.2 13.1 14.3 -1.1 19.9 26.5 13.4 13.8 14.5 29 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 10.9 10.7 10.4 -1.2 15.1 19.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 12.9 12.7 14.6 -1.0 19.7 27.1 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 6.7 6.5 8.4 -1.3 13.9 17.7 7.1 7.6 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.3 14.0 -1.0 18.5 25.0 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 12.5 12.3 14.2 -1.1 19.0 25.6 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.5 12.2 14.3 -1.0 18.4 26.7 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 12.5 12.3 12.5 -1.1 16.0 22.1 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.2 13.4 -1.0 21.4 27.3 12.8 13.2 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 11.1 10.8 11.1 -0.9 15.7 24.0 11.4 12.0 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.5 14.0 -0.9 23.3 29.2 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 11.3 11.4 13.2 -0.8 20.9 28.3 11.8 12.1 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 9.1 8.8 9.6 -1.2 14.7 18.8 9.5 10.2 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 13.0 12.7 14.7 -1.1 20.7 27.4 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------