***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 -0.4 45.1 45.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.9 16.5 -0.5 41.4 44.6 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 15.1 16.1 16.5 -0.3 43.4 46.7 15.0 16.3 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.2 14.6 -0.4 46.4 44.7 10.3 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.6 14.4 -0.4 46.4 45.3 12.0 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.9 12.7 -0.1 49.2 48.6 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.0 16.4 -0.5 42.5 43.7 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.7 12.5 -0.3 49.3 46.7 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.1 14.1 14.7 -0.4 45.7 45.2 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.9 13.2 -0.3 49.6 46.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 12.9 14.1 14.0 -0.2 49.0 48.0 13.0 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.4 13.4 -0.3 47.6 47.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 12.2 13.2 13.0 -0.3 47.9 48.0 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.1 14.7 -0.4 44.0 46.6 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.2 15.1 15.5 -0.3 49.8 47.5 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 13.2 14.1 13.7 -0.2 47.4 47.9 13.5 14.4 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.2 16.2 -0.5 44.2 44.5 14.0 14.3 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.2 12.4 -0.3 48.6 46.9 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.0 16.5 -0.3 43.5 46.0 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 7.9 10.6 -0.4 45.5 45.1 7.7 8.2 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.7 15.7 -0.4 45.3 45.4 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.5 16.1 -0.4 46.6 45.5 13.0 13.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.3 16.3 -0.3 45.4 47.2 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.8 14.5 -0.3 46.9 47.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.9 -0.5 44.1 43.6 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 11.9 12.5 13.0 -0.4 42.2 46.8 12.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.1 15.7 -0.4 43.8 44.9 12.6 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.1 15.0 -0.3 47.5 46.5 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.6 11.7 -0.3 48.6 46.2 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.3 16.6 -0.4 42.0 44.8 13.7 14.6 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------