***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.8 -0.4 44.9 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 13.1 13.5 15.7 -0.6 39.7 42.6 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 14.7 15.3 15.7 -0.4 44.3 44.7 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.7 13.9 -0.5 44.4 43.9 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.6 13.7 -0.5 43.1 43.3 12.3 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.2 11.6 11.9 -0.3 46.7 46.2 11.3 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 13.5 14.0 15.7 -0.6 40.1 42.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.0 11.6 -0.7 37.8 39.9 5.7 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.9 14.0 -0.5 41.4 43.3 13.4 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.3 12.3 -0.6 39.7 41.7 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.5 13.2 -0.4 45.0 44.2 13.0 13.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.2 12.6 -0.5 40.5 42.1 10.9 11.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.1 12.3 -0.3 49.9 46.2 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 13.5 14.2 13.9 -0.6 38.8 40.8 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.9 14.7 -0.3 47.1 46.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.1 13.0 -0.3 47.8 45.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 13.4 14.0 15.5 -0.6 41.0 42.8 13.7 14.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.2 11.6 -0.6 37.9 40.4 12.1 12.4 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 13.3 14.0 15.7 -0.5 42.3 43.6 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.5 7.8 9.7 -0.7 37.8 39.1 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 13.1 14.0 15.0 -0.5 44.5 44.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.7 15.4 -0.5 44.3 43.4 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 12.9 13.6 15.5 -0.4 43.4 44.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.7 13.7 -0.5 40.0 42.3 13.6 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.4 14.3 -0.4 44.6 44.6 13.2 13.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.3 12.3 -0.5 42.1 42.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.8 15.0 -0.4 44.7 44.8 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.9 14.2 -0.4 45.9 45.3 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.7 10.9 -0.6 36.0 39.8 9.4 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.8 14.3 15.8 -0.5 41.8 43.0 13.7 14.4 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------