***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 -1.1 32.5 33.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.8 14.1 -1.2 28.9 31.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 14.0 14.3 14.0 -1.1 29.0 32.2 14.6 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 8.9 9.1 12.4 -1.0 29.3 31.2 9.4 10.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.0 -1.1 27.0 29.3 11.2 12.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 9.9 10.3 10.6 -0.7 31.3 34.8 10.3 11.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.1 -1.2 29.4 31.9 12.9 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 4.1 5.0 9.9 -1.3 21.8 26.3 5.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 11.9 12.0 12.3 -1.2 27.0 29.6 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 11.6 12.3 10.7 -1.2 24.2 27.6 12.5 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 11.7 11.9 11.5 -1.0 25.5 29.9 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 10.0 9.9 10.9 -1.1 24.0 28.9 10.2 11.1 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 11.3 11.3 10.7 -0.8 27.4 32.6 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 12.6 13.0 12.2 -1.3 27.4 28.7 13.3 13.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.3 13.3 -0.7 36.4 36.7 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 12.0 12.1 11.4 -0.9 28.8 32.5 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.8 -1.2 29.5 31.3 13.4 14.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 10.0 10.1 10.0 -1.3 24.6 27.4 10.8 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 12.5 13.0 14.0 -1.2 28.8 31.8 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 6.2 6.1 8.1 -1.4 20.8 25.1 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 11.9 12.3 13.4 -1.1 30.5 31.2 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 12.2 12.3 13.7 -1.3 27.4 30.2 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 11.9 12.5 13.8 -1.1 29.9 31.5 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 11.5 12.5 12.0 -1.2 26.6 29.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 12.1 12.7 12.8 -1.0 31.9 32.8 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 10.9 11.2 10.8 -0.9 28.1 31.6 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 12.1 12.5 13.5 -1.0 32.2 34.0 12.6 13.1 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 11.0 11.5 12.8 -0.8 33.2 34.0 11.5 12.2 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 9.0 9.1 9.2 -1.3 23.5 26.8 9.5 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 12.6 13.3 14.2 -1.2 29.9 32.0 13.3 13.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------