***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 -1.8 20.6 22.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 10.7 10.5 12.1 -2.2 16.2 17.9 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 12.2 11.9 12.1 -2.1 14.4 17.6 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 7.1 6.8 10.3 -1.9 15.8 18.4 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 9.2 8.7 10.2 -2.0 13.8 15.3 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 8.8 8.7 8.2 -1.6 17.2 20.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 11.0 10.7 12.2 -2.1 15.9 18.8 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 3.1 1.1 7.5 -2.5 8.8 10.7 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 10.0 9.7 10.5 -2.2 10.7 12.0 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 10.3 9.1 8.5 -2.4 8.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 10.1 8.9 9.3 -2.3 10.1 11.6 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 8.4 7.5 8.3 -2.3 9.8 12.0 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 9.8 9.5 8.5 -2.0 12.7 14.2 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 10.8 10.6 10.2 -2.6 10.3 10.6 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 11.7 11.4 11.8 -1.6 15.2 19.3 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 10.8 10.5 9.3 -2.0 12.3 14.8 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 11.0 10.3 11.8 -2.3 13.1 16.9 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 98 2 0 100 8.9 7.0 7.5 -2.6 7.0 8.3 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 10.7 10.5 12.0 -2.2 15.7 17.3 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 4.6 3.2 5.2 -2.7 7.8 8.2 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 10.3 9.9 11.7 -2.1 12.0 15.4 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 10.4 10.3 11.6 -2.4 11.5 14.7 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 10.3 10.1 11.8 -2.2 14.1 16.0 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 10.2 9.4 9.8 -2.5 8.6 10.3 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 10.5 10.1 11.4 -1.9 16.9 20.2 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 9.6 9.4 8.3 -1.8 14.0 17.8 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 10.5 10.3 11.9 -1.8 19.4 21.7 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 9.5 9.3 10.9 -1.7 16.2 19.0 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 7.0 4.6 6.6 -2.7 6.4 7.8 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 -2.1 16.8 19.1 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------