***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 94.1 110.5 84.6 161.3 85.9 79.1 60.6 75.4 89.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 99.7 115.0 77.9 148.2 83.1 75.7 55.9 69.7 86.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 113.3 127.4 80.6 147.5 84.1 76.4 77.0 90.7 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 114.7 145.5 95.3 152.0 87.0 77.5 73.3 82.2 87.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 85.0 98.7 94.5 149.5 84.0 77.3 57.3 65.1 76.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 83.5 87.1 110.3 133.1 74.9 69.8 58.4 78.6 83.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 85.9 95.0 77.8 146.8 80.7 74.4 54.1 66.8 72.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 118.2 125.2 92.5 125.2 72.4 68.2 82.8 101.8 112.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 93.4 106.5 94.0 144.0 83.6 75.9 51.9 71.1 85.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 103.6 104.7 101.0 131.4 75.0 71.4 72.4 82.3 96.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 89.1 103.4 82.1 140.6 80.5 74.3 55.3 65.4 75.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 73.5 79.4 76.6 134.8 78.3 71.6 45.0 61.8 67.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 82.0 94.7 93.8 142.4 80.9 75.1 46.9 60.9 81.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 119.4 134.8 98.3 133.8 76.9 71.0 82.2 93.8 107.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 78.0 89.8 86.0 156.9 84.6 76.9 49.0 57.4 74.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 80.7 92.3 87.0 142.4 82.1 75.0 31.7 51.3 83.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 88.7 100.7 75.5 148.6 82.0 74.2 59.9 66.6 82.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 98.8 101.4 109.3 123.6 71.2 67.9 72.4 89.2 95.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 97.0 126.7 78.9 148.9 84.5 76.0 63.2 73.8 90.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 74.5 86.0 105.2 116.7 67.0 63.8 60.4 69.1 85.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 84.5 103.5 84.5 151.5 85.5 77.3 54.7 71.0 82.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 86.5 96.5 74.9 145.1 82.3 74.2 60.2 70.4 83.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 85.4 96.3 82.8 149.7 82.3 75.5 59.4 65.2 82.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 112.7 130.1 97.4 130.7 77.3 70.4 72.1 85.4 120.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 93.0 112.3 104.5 155.8 89.1 77.5 53.0 71.4 86.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 75.4 81.0 78.0 140.9 78.5 73.6 45.6 62.9 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 98.5 116.1 100.7 158.7 86.9 78.0 60.0 80.3 96.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 75.4 86.9 88.9 152.0 84.6 76.7 44.1 60.9 70.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 116.4 118.4 105.9 119.3 70.2 65.3 91.5 105.7 110.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 95.6 116.1 79.0 148.0 83.7 75.7 64.0 71.5 86.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------