***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 29.6 8.3 85.3 65.5 49.3 7.4 11.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.5 20.2 9.3 96.0 66.4 50.9 9.2 11.1 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.5 25.8 9.3 94.1 65.7 51.3 7.3 10.7 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.9 29.0 11.2 105.3 67.9 52.5 3.4 11.6 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 20.4 19.2 10.8 95.6 60.6 52.0 4.0 15.6 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 19.1 26.5 15.9 103.8 67.2 54.2 4.7 13.6 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.8 17.2 9.2 91.9 65.5 50.3 8.4 10.9 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 22.1 21.6 14.2 92.8 57.4 52.3 7.1 16.1 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.2 10.7 89.6 59.2 51.2 8.9 15.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.3 26.8 13.9 90.0 56.1 50.5 10.7 19.3 32.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.3 21.3 10.1 96.4 61.8 51.9 6.3 14.4 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.7 16.8 10.7 99.6 60.6 54.4 2.7 9.0 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.7 21.8 12.0 103.8 62.1 56.4 5.6 15.2 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 12.3 29.2 13.5 94.9 62.3 51.6 14.0 20.9 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 24.1 11.4 125.8 75.0 53.5 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.9 16.8 10.5 101.5 62.7 54.3 3.4 11.0 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.4 20.6 8.7 94.7 65.8 51.0 5.1 12.4 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 16.2 16.9 95.0 56.6 51.5 5.9 12.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.9 21.9 9.6 101.2 68.2 51.5 5.9 11.9 20.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 17.0 19.2 18.3 97.1 59.0 54.1 7.9 15.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.0 18.0 8.5 88.1 62.0 50.7 6.2 11.7 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.8 15.9 8.7 94.6 64.4 50.6 7.0 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.2 27.6 10.8 108.1 70.0 52.4 6.7 11.8 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.6 24.0 13.7 96.2 58.4 51.4 12.9 21.7 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.8 11.3 94.0 61.5 52.3 5.9 10.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.1 19.7 10.8 112.6 64.7 59.0 2.0 14.4 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.1 23.4 10.7 89.1 63.5 51.0 10.8 17.0 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.1 20.1 10.9 111.7 70.2 51.8 1.7 8.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.7 17.9 99.5 57.4 52.3 10.8 15.5 37.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.6 18.4 9.3 93.6 65.8 50.6 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------