***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 30.5 37.3 21.8 171.9 78.6 67.3 3.4 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 27.3 29.9 20.0 158.0 76.0 66.6 11.6 20.1 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 31.4 39.6 21.0 157.2 77.3 66.0 5.6 11.8 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 30.5 45.3 25.3 163.9 81.5 68.4 8.2 14.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 23.4 30.9 25.8 167.8 82.7 69.1 6.4 13.3 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 22.8 24.4 28.9 152.4 77.2 68.2 11.6 19.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 22.2 27.8 20.0 151.7 76.8 64.8 7.3 10.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 30.7 37.3 24.9 148.0 77.6 66.8 10.4 15.4 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 26.2 34.6 26.6 168.5 81.4 68.4 5.7 11.3 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 32.2 42.4 28.3 155.5 79.9 68.4 7.3 15.3 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 25.3 29.8 21.4 161.6 82.7 68.4 10.5 16.5 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 12.9 15.7 20.2 162.5 78.4 67.7 5.5 7.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 21.7 28.6 24.7 167.0 79.7 69.6 5.7 10.1 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 29.6 36.1 28.5 146.0 77.7 66.0 10.8 13.9 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 18.3 24.4 20.1 151.5 79.0 64.9 1.1 6.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 19.2 25.3 23.1 168.9 83.3 70.0 4.4 8.6 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 23.1 30.4 20.2 163.3 81.6 65.4 6.5 11.4 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 24.9 29.2 32.4 149.0 77.0 68.2 4.0 13.3 25.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 30.5 30.3 20.2 158.5 76.7 66.8 13.5 19.7 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 27.6 31.5 30.3 140.8 77.3 66.8 6.7 14.5 27.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 26.8 33.3 23.1 173.9 80.3 68.7 7.8 11.8 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 22.4 28.7 20.3 156.6 81.5 65.1 10.1 16.0 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 27.0 31.3 21.7 157.5 77.9 66.1 8.0 14.9 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 27.4 31.3 28.1 148.1 76.1 66.9 7.4 17.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 18.5 21.3 27.9 164.2 77.8 67.0 7.6 11.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 20.7 29.3 19.3 164.9 80.1 70.3 1.7 8.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 27.2 32.8 26.3 165.0 77.2 66.3 5.0 11.1 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 26.4 33.2 23.1 164.8 82.3 68.7 2.7 13.7 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 36.4 44.5 31.8 145.8 78.0 67.9 9.2 20.7 32.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 29.6 32.6 20.1 156.6 75.3 66.2 10.9 19.8 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------