***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 20.4 32.6 18.8 137.5 73.7 59.3 8.5 17.3 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.5 26.3 16.8 106.4 64.8 53.2 13.6 21.0 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.1 32.2 17.0 112.7 69.7 55.3 10.2 19.9 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.7 31.0 20.0 120.5 68.9 55.7 9.0 19.6 27.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.7 23.7 19.3 115.9 67.0 55.1 11.8 18.3 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 15.4 18.0 29.4 114.4 67.8 57.4 11.5 14.3 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 10.9 25.1 17.5 116.4 68.1 55.0 8.9 18.3 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 28.1 29.7 19.7 102.0 56.9 54.6 21.5 25.5 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.8 19.3 110.3 67.1 55.1 10.8 21.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.9 20.7 98.6 59.6 52.9 8.9 13.1 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.7 20.0 15.9 102.2 63.7 53.2 9.6 14.2 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.8 16.3 16.0 111.7 62.2 57.0 6.3 9.6 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.3 19.7 22.3 121.8 68.4 59.6 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.6 35.8 20.8 97.4 63.5 50.7 15.4 31.7 36.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.1 18.8 18.0 122.1 70.8 58.8 5.5 11.1 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 13.1 14.1 19.3 112.9 66.0 56.6 6.4 10.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.4 25.2 16.5 108.3 63.2 51.9 10.4 18.1 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.0 26.0 23.6 93.9 59.3 52.7 13.9 20.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 27.0 28.6 16.9 104.6 64.5 52.5 10.5 19.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 18.5 21.3 25.4 100.6 56.4 55.3 9.3 16.3 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.2 22.1 17.4 118.1 67.7 56.2 9.4 14.9 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 11.5 30.2 17.1 108.3 62.3 51.2 16.6 22.0 31.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 20.2 24.6 17.7 106.5 66.0 53.5 13.1 16.8 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.2 31.0 20.4 97.1 64.6 52.5 14.3 25.6 31.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.5 29.4 25.1 141.6 75.5 60.8 12.6 20.3 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 12.7 19.6 18.4 122.6 68.6 63.4 4.7 10.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 21.5 32.6 24.2 145.1 75.8 61.3 8.6 18.1 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.3 18.7 18.5 117.0 69.2 57.2 5.8 10.1 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 24.6 27.6 23.1 90.5 57.5 51.5 12.8 21.4 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.6 26.4 17.2 110.0 67.5 54.9 11.9 17.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------