***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 18.6 33.7 35.8 217.6 90.7 84.5 5.8 8.6 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 27.8 43.4 31.8 220.8 92.4 82.9 3.0 7.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 21.7 29.3 33.4 204.1 89.7 81.9 5.4 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 26.8 37.4 38.8 193.8 89.6 80.6 9.9 15.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 16.1 28.6 38.6 194.2 88.9 80.7 6.7 10.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 22.2 25.1 36.1 158.0 78.5 73.3 10.8 14.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 19.6 33.0 31.2 210.8 89.4 82.2 3.0 4.6 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 36.1 41.3 33.8 150.5 75.2 69.6 14.9 24.1 36.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 18.0 21.5 37.4 186.5 87.4 78.7 8.6 12.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 22.9 31.1 38.1 170.3 83.8 76.0 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 16.9 23.9 34.6 181.7 85.4 77.6 8.0 11.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 17.5 20.7 29.7 154.0 75.5 70.4 9.0 12.9 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 19.1 22.9 34.8 164.3 80.2 75.5 6.2 12.4 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 40.9 54.7 35.5 193.1 89.7 78.2 11.3 15.6 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 22.0 32.6 36.4 206.4 90.0 80.9 6.2 11.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 18.2 22.8 34.1 170.3 81.6 75.7 5.4 8.6 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 15.7 25.6 30.2 214.9 89.6 80.8 3.9 8.3 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 24.7 28.4 36.3 152.6 79.4 72.2 13.2 17.0 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 21.3 40.9 32.2 220.9 92.5 82.4 2.1 7.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 15.0 21.3 31.2 128.5 68.4 63.2 9.4 13.3 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.9 24.3 35.6 194.8 89.5 79.9 5.7 10.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 23.8 41.0 28.9 210.8 90.1 79.7 5.8 10.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 20.4 42.2 32.6 218.2 92.5 81.4 3.9 7.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 27.1 34.1 35.3 172.2 84.9 76.0 11.4 19.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 19.4 24.4 40.2 197.7 87.8 80.7 5.8 11.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 18.9 22.5 29.5 155.1 79.1 72.9 6.8 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 23.0 29.4 39.6 208.6 89.5 83.2 4.8 7.6 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 18.5 22.2 36.3 192.9 87.2 79.4 9.6 14.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 30.9 33.2 33.0 142.2 74.8 67.6 15.5 24.0 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 21.5 37.1 32.4 217.0 91.7 83.7 5.6 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------