***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 25.8 24.6 25.0 -0.7 34.3 38.4 24.3 25.4 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 24.6 24.8 25.0 -0.8 36.5 37.9 24.6 25.3 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 24.5 24.7 24.9 -0.9 32.6 36.5 24.7 25.3 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 17.6 17.6 23.1 -0.9 33.3 33.8 17.6 18.2 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.0 25.0 23.3 -0.8 33.6 35.8 24.9 25.6 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 23.4 23.5 21.0 -0.8 34.2 34.4 23.5 24.0 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.6 25.1 -0.6 38.8 40.6 24.1 25.1 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.0 21.4 -0.9 35.5 34.9 12.9 13.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 24.3 24.4 23.7 -0.8 33.7 36.9 24.4 24.9 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.3 22.2 -0.8 35.2 36.1 24.2 24.8 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.8 22.7 -0.8 35.0 35.7 24.7 25.2 26.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.9 23.8 22.3 -0.9 34.7 33.8 23.8 24.4 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 24.7 24.7 21.8 -1.0 33.4 33.0 24.7 25.2 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.3 23.3 -0.8 35.5 36.8 24.3 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.8 -1.0 30.4 31.9 25.6 25.8 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.3 25.4 22.4 -0.9 33.4 34.2 25.4 25.8 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.3 24.8 -0.7 38.7 39.8 23.8 24.7 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.8 21.5 -0.8 36.2 36.2 23.7 24.2 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.1 24.1 24.9 -0.9 34.2 36.5 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.2 19.3 -1.0 32.4 33.8 19.3 19.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.4 24.4 24.5 -0.9 32.4 36.0 24.4 25.0 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.6 24.5 24.6 -0.8 36.0 37.2 24.3 25.1 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.6 24.3 24.6 -0.9 32.7 35.9 24.3 25.1 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.0 23.2 -0.8 35.9 36.9 23.9 24.6 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 24.6 24.7 23.5 -0.8 34.8 37.5 24.6 25.3 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 24.3 24.2 21.5 -1.1 27.9 31.1 24.4 24.8 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.3 24.2 24.3 -0.7 36.5 39.5 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 25.5 25.4 23.3 -1.0 31.6 32.1 25.6 26.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.1 20.5 -0.8 36.8 36.5 19.0 19.3 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.7 25.1 -0.8 35.6 37.7 24.5 25.4 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------