***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.9 26.5 -0.6 48.4 43.5 26.5 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 24.6 26.5 26.5 -0.7 41.7 41.9 25.6 26.8 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 24.7 26.7 26.5 -0.7 44.4 42.2 25.0 26.9 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 18.0 18.9 24.8 -0.8 39.8 41.2 18.8 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 25.0 26.6 24.8 -0.6 42.9 42.6 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 23.9 24.1 22.4 -0.8 36.8 40.8 24.0 25.2 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 24.3 26.5 26.6 -0.6 46.7 43.8 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 13.2 14.4 23.0 -0.7 38.5 41.8 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 24.5 26.3 25.1 -0.6 44.1 42.9 24.9 26.7 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 24.6 25.6 23.8 -0.6 41.3 43.1 25.3 26.2 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 24.6 26.2 24.2 -0.7 40.0 42.2 25.3 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 24.1 24.9 23.9 -0.9 35.4 40.4 24.7 25.3 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 24.9 25.3 23.2 -1.0 33.0 38.6 25.3 26.2 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 24.0 25.9 24.8 -0.6 42.3 43.6 25.0 26.3 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 25.9 26.9 25.2 -0.9 37.6 38.9 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 25.3 26.5 23.9 -0.9 35.6 40.2 26.2 27.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 24.0 26.2 26.3 -0.6 45.0 43.2 25.0 26.5 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 23.9 25.6 23.1 -0.6 43.8 44.1 24.2 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 24.1 25.2 26.4 -0.8 40.6 41.3 24.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 19.3 20.5 21.0 -0.7 39.1 42.0 20.0 21.2 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 24.7 26.7 25.9 -0.7 44.5 42.4 25.4 26.8 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 24.3 25.7 26.2 -0.7 42.1 42.2 24.8 27.1 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 24.3 26.1 26.2 -0.8 40.4 41.7 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 23.9 25.6 24.8 -0.6 42.9 43.9 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 24.9 26.7 25.0 -0.6 43.9 43.2 25.8 26.9 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 24.9 25.4 23.2 -1.0 36.0 38.5 25.0 25.9 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 24.6 26.3 25.7 -0.5 47.0 44.1 25.1 26.5 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 25.9 26.4 25.0 -0.9 36.1 39.3 26.2 27.9 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 19.2 21.0 22.1 -0.5 42.6 44.4 19.5 21.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 24.6 26.4 26.6 -0.7 42.1 42.0 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------