***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 24.4 26.0 25.4 -0.9 36.9 42.1 25.6 26.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 24.1 25.5 25.4 -1.0 39.8 41.2 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 24.2 25.1 25.3 -1.1 35.4 40.0 25.0 26.0 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 17.8 18.4 23.7 -1.2 34.3 38.5 18.3 19.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 24.7 25.3 23.6 -1.1 33.9 39.2 25.3 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 23.2 24.0 21.5 -1.1 35.0 39.2 23.8 25.3 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.7 25.1 25.5 -0.8 41.6 43.1 24.5 25.7 26.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 12.7 13.2 21.9 -1.2 33.9 38.9 13.2 14.5 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.6 23.9 -1.1 33.8 39.3 24.5 25.6 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 23.9 24.8 22.6 -1.1 34.3 39.3 24.7 26.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 24.5 25.2 23.1 -1.1 32.5 39.2 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 23.3 23.6 22.8 -1.2 31.1 38.3 24.0 25.5 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 24.4 25.0 22.2 -1.3 31.6 37.7 25.0 26.4 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 24.4 24.1 23.6 -1.0 35.1 40.2 23.7 25.9 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.6 25.8 24.1 -1.2 32.8 37.7 25.8 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 25.2 25.1 22.8 -1.2 30.6 38.3 25.5 27.3 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 23.7 24.8 25.2 -0.9 42.2 42.5 24.1 25.7 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 23.4 24.1 21.8 -1.1 35.0 39.9 23.8 25.6 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.7 24.8 25.3 -1.1 38.2 40.3 24.4 25.5 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 18.4 19.7 19.7 -1.2 34.2 38.8 19.6 20.7 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 24.2 24.6 24.7 -1.1 33.2 39.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.0 25.1 25.0 -1.0 40.2 41.0 24.6 25.8 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.3 24.8 25.0 -1.1 36.5 40.0 24.4 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 23.7 24.6 23.5 -1.1 35.6 40.1 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 24.8 25.6 23.9 -1.0 37.0 41.3 25.3 26.5 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 24.1 24.3 22.1 -1.3 31.8 37.0 24.4 26.5 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.2 25.7 24.7 -0.8 39.4 43.1 24.9 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.0 23.8 -1.3 32.8 37.5 26.0 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 18.0 19.4 20.8 -1.1 35.6 40.1 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 24.1 25.1 25.5 -1.0 38.9 41.1 24.6 25.9 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------