***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 25.0 23.6 24.2 -1.1 37.2 39.8 23.4 24.4 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 25.6 24.2 24.2 -1.2 40.0 39.5 23.4 24.9 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.3 24.2 -1.2 34.1 38.3 24.3 25.1 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.3 16.3 22.5 -1.2 34.4 37.7 16.2 17.6 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.1 22.5 -1.2 35.1 38.0 24.9 25.7 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.1 20.4 -1.0 34.5 39.6 23.0 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 25.1 23.6 24.3 -1.0 41.5 40.8 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.4 12.2 20.8 -1.3 30.5 37.1 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.1 22.9 -1.1 35.7 38.5 23.9 24.8 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 23.3 23.5 21.5 -1.2 32.4 37.8 23.6 24.9 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.9 24.2 21.9 -1.2 33.2 37.9 24.2 25.2 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.4 21.6 -1.3 31.5 36.8 23.4 24.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 24.4 24.4 21.0 -1.3 33.0 37.0 24.4 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.7 23.9 22.6 -1.2 34.5 39.0 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.3 24.9 22.9 -1.2 38.9 37.6 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.9 24.8 21.6 -1.2 33.6 37.8 24.8 26.1 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 24.6 23.7 24.1 -1.1 42.7 40.6 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 22.9 22.8 20.9 -1.2 31.9 38.2 22.8 24.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 25.3 23.3 24.2 -1.3 37.2 38.6 22.8 24.6 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 18.5 18.7 18.5 -1.4 29.8 36.4 18.8 19.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.5 24.2 23.7 -1.2 34.8 38.3 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.5 24.3 23.9 -1.2 39.5 38.6 23.6 24.8 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.7 23.5 23.9 -1.3 34.6 38.2 23.4 25.1 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 23.0 23.5 22.6 -1.2 33.9 38.8 23.4 24.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.3 24.3 22.8 -1.1 37.8 39.4 24.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 23.8 23.9 20.7 -1.5 30.9 34.6 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 24.8 23.9 23.5 -1.0 39.5 40.4 23.5 24.2 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.4 22.6 -1.2 36.1 37.4 24.9 26.1 27.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 18.5 18.1 19.8 -1.2 31.4 37.8 18.1 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.4 23.8 24.3 -1.2 38.5 39.2 23.3 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------